[This article belongs to Volume - 55, Issue - 02]
Gongcheng Kexue Yu Jishu/Advanced Engineering Science
Journal ID : AES-02-02-2023-515

Title : Climate Change-Based Coastal Wind Modeling
Heri Sulistiyono, Eko Pradjoko, I Wayan Yasa,

Abstract : Wave data is an essential element in coastal disaster risk studies. The dimensions and structural types of seawalls and breakwaters on the coast depend on these elements. Extreme storm surges can cause significant damage to coastal areas. In wave theory, the wind can produce waves. The bigger the wind, the stronger the waves. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the wind is a part of the climate element that has the potential to change along with climate change. This paper proposes a new approach to predict future waves based on climate change. The technique contains slope correlation and regression analysis. The slope correlation is proposed in this paper to improve the performance of the Pearson Correlation for such a particular purpose. This study uses the Ampenan coastal area to demonstrate the proposed approach. This research implements wind data from the Selaparang Airport Station to represent the coastal winds in Ampenan, Indonesia, and climate change data from the IPCC. The recorded wind is from 1988 to 2020, and the climate change data is from 1988 to 2100. Selaparang Airport Station is the closest wind station to Ampenan beach. The distance between the Selaparang station and the Ampenan beach is less than ten kilometers. The result of the demonstration showed an increase in the average and minimum wind speed values. The average increase is about 3 knots from 1990 to 2100. However, the maximum value of wind speed remains the same until 2100. In addition, the standard deviation of wind speed gradually decreases in the future.