[This article belongs to Volume - 55, Issue - 08]
Gongcheng Kexue Yu Jishu/Advanced Engineering Science
Journal ID : AES-25-07-2023-600

Title : Predicting SPI Drought Indicator Using Machine Learning Algorithms: Case study in Hiran Region, Somalia
Mohamed Abukar Abdullahi, Abdulhalim H. Farah, Abdikafi Elmi Abdishakur, Abdulshakur Abdullahi Diiso, Mohamed Sheikh Abdisamad Sheikh Adam, Umer Abdulrahman Barkan,

Abstract : Drought is a recurring natural disaster that can cause significant damage to agricultural production, human livelihoods, and the environment. Drought forecasting is an important tool for managing and mitigating the impacts of drought. This study aimed to improve drought forecasting through the use of machine learning models. Specifically, the study evaluated the performance of three machine learning models, namely Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), for forecasting Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought. These models were trained using precipitation data of Hiran region, Somalia from 1980 to 2021, to evaluate their ability to accurately predict drought conditions. The results showed that the SVR model performed the best, with an R2 value of 0.753, MAE of 0.344, and RMSE of 0.488. The ELM and RF models also performed well. The study highlights the potential of machine learning models to improve drought forecasting, and the importance of evaluating multiple models to select the one that performs best for a specific dataset.